Ban on new petrol/diesel sales from 2035 (or earlier!)

[Eric Bloodaxe]

Hard on the heels of the ban (including hybrids) being brought forward from 2040 to 2035, yesterday the Transport Secretary hinted that it could be 2032. This morning I read that 2030 is now being considered.

At no point have I yet seen any clarification as to the position regarding existing vehicles at whichever date they finally decide on. Concern keeps being expressed regarding falling sales of new vehicles but without some clarity this can only get worse. 

This is in addition to the many questions regarding non carbon propelled vehicles of course - battery electric vs hydrogen, cost, charging availability, battery materials and disposal, generating sufficient "clean" electricity for charging or hydrogen production, etc, etc.

I haven't pestered my MP for a while, but I think I might be dropping him a line on this one!😀

[alexp999]

Existing petrol/diesel cars will still be able to be used and sold second hand.

It's just the sale of new cars this ban affects and the reason they are bringing it forward is to try to make sure that the vast majority of the last fossil fuel cars sold just before the ban are then too old and off the road by 2050.

[Eric Bloodaxe]

7 minutes ago, alexp999 said:

Existing petrol/diesel cars will still be able to be used and sold second hand.

It's just the sale of new cars this ban affects and the reason they are bringing it forward is to try to make sure that the vast majority of the last fossil fuel cars sold just before the ban are then too old and off the road by 2050.

Yes, that's my understanding. My point is they're not making it clear, which affects confidence.

[alexp999]

"You will still be able to buy a second-hand petrol or diesel car in 2035 and drive one you currently own."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40726868

[mozz]

Should all be sorted by 2055, or 8:55pm. Sorry couldn't resist.

[TomsFocus]

20 minutes ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

Yes, that's my understanding. My point is they're not making it clear, which affects confidence.

If you buy a car today, it's unlikely to still be on the road by 2030, let alone with the same owner...  Cars just aren't made to last anymore and that's not necessarily a bad thing, means we can keep pushing the tech for lower emissions constantly until the complete ban.  I think we'll have to wait until the Brexit deals have been sorted this year before anything gets confirmed with the ICE ban though.  That will be a huge factor in what we can do over the next few years...

[Eric Bloodaxe]

1 hour ago, TomsFocus said:

If you buy a car today, it's unlikely to still be on the road by 2030, let alone with the same owner...  Cars just aren't made to last anymore and that's not necessarily a bad thing, means we can keep pushing the tech for lower emissions constantly until the complete ban.  

There's a heck of a lot of cars round here 10 years old plus, including several in my village which I know are still the same owner, including a very nice E39 BMW 5 series. Up the Dales where we spend a lot of time the farmers seem to think anything from this century is fairly new. But yeah, the modern stuff probably won't last that long, not least because of all the technology which won't be economic to repair.

With the timescale now, I can't see much further significant investment in improving i/c. It's a very difficult "chicken and egg" for manufacturers - until sales volumes of alternative fuel vehicles go up, the price won't come down and vice versa. Perhaps the increased first year tax of i/c cars under the WLTP CO2 measure from April might have an effect in raising the prices of i/c vehicles and narrow the gap.

1 hour ago, alexp999 said:

"You will still be able to buy a second-hand petrol or diesel car in 2035 and drive one you currently own."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40726868

That's a good article, Alex, missed that one I must admit. It would be good if, once they definitely make their minds up on dates, the government could inform the public directly (perhaps by an insert in RFL reminders or V5s) of the facts. Our circle of family/friends are all drivers but (with the exception of a couple of petrolheads) are absolutely clueless about carbon neutrality, fossil fuel bans etc.

[Jonro2009]

I just bought a diesel Merc before Christmas and a diesel 4x4 Karoq 2 weeks ago, both new. It hasn't put me off or even tempted me to look into electric vehicles. The tech simply isn't readily available and try getting your electric vehicle serviced up here and you will struggle.

#dirtydiesel #dervFTW

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[pragmatix]

7 minutes ago, Jonro2009 said:

I just bought a diesel Merc before Christmas and a diesel 4x4 Karoq 2 weeks ago, both new. It hasn't put me off or even tempted me to look into electric vehicles. The tech simply isn't readily available and try getting your electric vehicle serviced up here and you will struggle.

#dirtydiesel #dervFTW

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Yep just down the road from you the situation is the same, Ive tested EV's round here and the range is appalling they don't like the hills of the cold, diesel for me still, could be tempted by a diesel hybrid like the soon to be announced 7 seater Kuga, I don't see the point of the mild hybrids either.

[Eric Bloodaxe]

1 hour ago, pragmatix said:

, Ive tested EV's round here

Just out of interest Pete, where did you manage to test EV's? Through the normal dealers, presumably?

What I'd like is somewhere I could try various EV's in a non-sales environment, just to familiarise myself with the characteristics of EVs. Sure, I could go to, say, a Nissan dealer and try a Leaf, but I wouldn't really have much idea as to what to look for as to whether it was a good or bad EV.

There is I believe, a national EV Experience Centre in Milton Keynes, but that's not much use to me, let alone to you guys further north.

I think wider opportunities to just sample various EVs without any sales pressure might do a lot to stimulate interest and sales.

[zain611]

Most likely they will charge petrol and diesel owners off the road such as the emission charges they want to bring in

[Eric Bloodaxe]

6 minutes ago, zain611 said:

Most likely they will charge petrol and diesel owners off the road such as the emission charges they want to bring in

Lol, yes, I did hear someone the other day (might have been Michael Gove) saying in a few years the costs of electric would start to be lower than petrol/diesel. You can take that two ways - electric getting cheaper or petrol/ diesel getting more expensive (through taxation etc).😀

[pragmatix]

1 hour ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

Just out of interest Pete, where did you manage to test EV's? Through the normal dealers, presumably?

What I'd like is somewhere I could try various EV's in a non-sales environment, just to familiarise myself with the characteristics of EVs. Sure, I could go to, say, a Nissan dealer and try a Leaf, but I wouldn't really have much idea as to what to look for as to whether it was a good or bad EV.

There is I believe, a national EV Experience Centre in Milton Keynes, but that's not much use to me, let alone to you guys further north.

I think wider opportunities to just sample various EVs without any sales pressure might do a lot to stimulate interest and sales.

Yes just through the dealers, very hard to compare , the small EV's are fine in town but give them a hill or cold day and they struggle.

i have tried an I pace very nice to drive but even then I got no where near the claimed mileage again hills and cold let it down supposed to be 234 miles but all I got was 155. That was driving slower than I normally do too.

I regularly do 600 mile round trips to dog shows and even though I can be at a venue for maybe 8-10 hours none that I go to have charging points my current car will do most of my trips without needing to fill up At good motorway speeds.

[Eric Bloodaxe]

12 minutes ago, pragmatix said:

i have tried an I pace very nice to drive but even then I got no where near the claimed mileage again hills and cold let it down supposed to be 234 miles but all I got was 155.

I've seen good things about the I-pace in various mags, but, like you, they didn't get the claimed range, even after software updates to increase range supposedly. And at £64k plus it's not an option for most folk anyway.

Something like the VW ID3 might be a step in the right direction with (claimed) ranges up to 340 miles. I've seen prices for launch editions quoted as £40k, but suggestions that the "regular"  versions could be nearer the £30k mark so not that far adrift of a good spec Focus or Golf - we shall see.

If the range claims were true, it might work for me. My problem area is the Dales, where we keep a caravan and spend a lot of time. The snag for electric is the infrastructure there is not good - the power is always going off and the supply to our caravan site often trips even when  boiling a kettle, so I doubt if you could charge a car, and there are no public chargers there yet (nearest one is a 50 mile round trip). And as you mention, it's pretty hilly and tends to be rather cold at times!

My current (no pun intended) plan is, though, to get one more reasonably pokey petrol car before I get too wrinkly, after that (hopefully) we should be a bit clearer on the future.

[Jonro2009]

I've seen prices for launch editions quoted as £40k, but suggestions that the "regular"  versions could be nearer the £30k mark so not that far adrift of a good spec Focus or Golf - we shall see.

30K in today's car market buys you a pretty decent well specc'd mid range car like you say, my Karoq is the (top spec) Edition 4x4 spec with a couple of extras and came in at £35k. Fast forward to electric vehicles and £35k is going to buy you a mid spec vehicle [emoji3525] so not only are the government going to stop me buying a petrol\diesel fueled car, they are going to make an equivelant spec electric vehicle well out of my price range.

I know I don't sound very economically responsible, I welcome greener solutions. It's just unfortunate that this generation are going to be stifled because of previous generations living the 'good life' lol.

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[Eric Bloodaxe]

13 minutes ago, Jonro2009 said:

. Fast forward to electric vehicles and £35k is going to buy you a mid spec vehicle so not only are the government going to stop me buying a petrol\diesel fueled car, they are going to make an equivelant spec electric vehicle well out of my price range.

Yes, I'm pretty sure that, one way or another, we'll be paying more for our motoring in future. One of the arguments for EV's is that once you've got round the initial cost, maintenance and fuel costs would be lower, but governments will have to replace lost fuel duty so road pricing is likely to appear instead.

It may well be that the whole personal transport model has to change, with more use of public transport, or short term hire cars, rather than the vehicle ownership we've got used to.

[Jonro2009]

.
It may well be that the whole personal transport model has to change, with more use of public transport, or short term hire cars, rather than the vehicle ownership we've got used to.

That is something I could never ever get behind, just taking away our independence, spontaneity. Cam you imagine them even trying that in the likes of the US or Australia. Would work in places like china\Japan where the infrastructure is there bit our public transport grinds to a halt with leaves on the track!

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[iantt]

My public transport currently takes 4 hours to get me to work if I didn't drive 20 mins in my car . Then another 4hrs back. This is for 14 miles each way. 

So public transport needs a big amount of investment round here. 

But on a side note, I drove the transit phev today. Quite impressed with the acceleration. Quicker up to 40mph than a diesel. What it like after that I didn't find out. 

[Turvey]

Read this the other day and promptly forgot to post it 🙄

Makes some good points, obviously I can't confirm all his facts and figures, but seems to be a LOT of work needing to be done before 2035(or earlier)

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7968085/Eco-edict-new-cars-electric-15-years-doomed-backfire-says-JOHN-NAISH.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead&fbclid=IwAR2olzK1S7QLStkER-drZRJNY9WvgH6wVMsjHrTVpYLOQbWFGDwMFFAp4EQ

[Eric Bloodaxe]

Very good article. The devil in me has this sort of wish (horrid, I know😈) that the world would just tilt ever so slightly on it's axis, making the planet a bit colder, so they'd be begging us to drive gas guzzlers to warm things up!😀

[zain611]

2 hours ago, iantt said:

My public transport currently takes 4 hours to get me to work if I didn't drive 20 mins in my car . Then another 4hrs back. This is for 14 miles each way. 

So public transport needs a big amount of investment round here. 

But on a side note, I drove the transit phev today. Quite impressed with the acceleration. Quicker up to 40mph than a diesel. What it like after that I didn't find out. 

With my previous uni it took me 2 hours to get there by bus and train whilst only 45mins to an hour by car. Public transport it varies on the location your going to. I'd probably think it would be quicker going by train to my current uni than driving there to Central London. Would be cheaper to go by public transport there as I won't be paying for congestion and ULEZ plus no parking over there 😩

[Jonro2009]

Very good article. The devil in me has this sort of wish (horrid, I know[emoji48]) that the world would just tilt ever so slightly on it's axis, making the planet a bit colder, so they'd be begging us to drive gas guzzlers to warm things up![emoji3]

I'll see you in hell then, I'm of the same thinking lol

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[Jonro2009]

I'd have to give up my job, as would most of the nurses who don't live within walking distance of the hospital. Public transport (round here) doesn't start or finish late enough for me to get in or get away at the correct times. Starting at 0630 and finishing at 0200 - not the same shift obviously.

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[Eric Bloodaxe]

I was really just suggesting (like the guy in the article Kevin posted above) that there are a lot more implications than just switching from petrol/diesel to EV.

Public transport provision and how we pay to access It would certainly need a rethink.

As other posters say, it's very patchy. I used to often travel to London by train for work - 2 hours. Yet to get to my normal workplace (25 miles away) by public transport would have taken twice as long, so I went by car. Where I live now, I can (and do) jump on a bus right outside the door to get directly to my nearest 2 cities (Leeds or York.) Yet to go see my brother in law 4 miles away as the crow flies means a 16 mile journey on 2 buses taking over an hour, compared to 10 mins by car. On a good day I can even walk it faster!

[Eric Bloodaxe]

9 hours ago, Jonro2009 said:

. Public transport (round here) doesn't start or finish late enough for me to get in or get away at the correct times. Starting at 0630 and finishing at 0200 - not the same shift obviously.

We come up to Inverness by train quite often and have found the local transport pretty good. But it's one thing for a visitor and, as you say, quite another for people working shifts.

Same story round here. My brother in law can't really afford to run a car and pay his rent/eat, so has had great difficulty in finding and keeping jobs simply because there's no transport at the time he needs it. Fortunately he's managed to get a job as a van driver and they let him keep the van at home, otherwise he'd have no chance of getting to the depot - there's no bus at any time to there.