More interesting chat from a senior motor industry figure, this time Ford. Looks like there might eventually be good news for those who would like an "e-Fiesta":

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/electric-ford-fiesta-game-changing-affordable-ev-due-2026

What caught my eye though was the comment on the EV timetable in the Q&A bit near the end:

Ford planned to sell only electric passenger cars in Europe by 2030.

Was that too ambitious?

“Yeah, I think customers have voted, and they told us that was too ambitious – and I think everyone in the industry has found that out the hard way. I would also say reality has a way of making you adjust your plans.” “We don’t see that going all-electric by 2030 is a good choice for our business or, especially, for our customers.”

1 minute ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

Looks like there might eventually be good news for those who would like an "e-Fiesta":

Free psychiatric help on the NHS ? 🤣

Hey! Let’s all burn down our houses at the same time and then get the government to build us brand new houses! No need to think it through or look into the other possible consequences.

I would have happily purchased a new Fiesta ST a couple of years ago, But Ford decided to stop producing them altogether. I don’t have any interest in buying an electric Fiesta. In fact I would still be buying one if it were a exact carryover from the 2019 version!

6 minutes ago, Scottman said:

Hey! Let’s all burn down our houses at the same time ...

No need, Mount Etna is pouring out more pollutants that us mere humans could ever manage LOL Good old nature, eh?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c0w441d515xo

 

The cost of EV battery packs has dropped an astounding 90% in the last 15 years
But other costs associated with EV ownership are rising

https://www.techspot.com/news/104158-cost-ev-battery-packs-has-dropped-astounding-90.html

On 8/5/2024 at 3:02 PM, StephenFord said:

No need, Mount Etna is pouring out more pollutants that us mere humans could ever manage LOL Good old nature, eh?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c0w441d515xo

 

Mother Nature is neither kind nor cruel. Merely indifferent. The eruptions of volcanoes are something that might be worth trying to tame and harness for societal good! And if successful, could reduce carbon emissions significantly in a very meaningful way. All this other stuff is not going to make any difference before it bankrupts the world economies. Not that the politicians are not doing a bang up job!

I was quite frankly shocked when ford binned the Focus and the Fiesta. I was expecting an electric Focus and a refined 1.0 liter petrol engine Fiesta or something along those lines, maybe a mild hybrid Focus. Ford has gotten quite good at making hybrid vehicles and was successful at marketing them.

The dealership network is also comfortable with both selling and service of hybrid vehicles. It seems like the company forgot that they have research people who are capable of collecting data on market conditions and consumer preferences! I am not a marketing expert but I am very interested and observant of the industry and how customers and companies actually use their vehicles. The only argument I saw for a battery electric vehicle was in the Transit van. A vehicle that is used for route delivery most often. Route delivery is by definition a stop and go, generally urban or suburban situation. It also means that it generally has a similar area of operation and returns to a central hub of operations where it is reloaded and refueled or charged. The structure of that situation is a very favorable environment for a pure electric vehicle. Same as true for municipal buses. But it doesn’t make sense for a cross country bus traveling long distances between cities. Nobody was clamoring for an electric Mustang in the states, anymore than I am sure that there were significant numbers of people in Britain that were crossing fingers in hopes that Ford would make an electric Capri! My God. Where was the initiative to reintroduce a “Next generation Capri” prior to this?

 The whole idea of this is not very honest from a marketing perspective because it uses emotional memory to make an argument for an irrational product.

2 hours ago, Scottman said:

Route delivery is by definition a stop and go, generally urban or suburban situation. It also means that it generally has a similar area of operation and returns to a central hub of operations where it is reloaded and refueled or charged. The structure of that situation is a very favorable environment for a pure electric vehicle.

That is why for many of us over generations, got their milk delivered by an electric milk float! That was even back in the days when 'climate change' meant leaving the house with an umbrella 🤣

In the media today I see that sales of used EVs are up over 50% year on year.

Elsewhere I note that used EV prices, at 3 years old (so presumably ex-lease or other finance plan) are now around 8.5% lower than an equivalent ICE car, with used values of some "prestige" EVs having dropped as much as 50% in the last couple of years.

Obviously the two facts are connected, but if an EV works for you, you can grab a bargain at present.

The question arises: if new EV sales (other than to fleets, etc) remain slow, where are the used ones going to come from in the next few years? And if used EV demand continues to increase, presumably used EV prices will start to rise again, damping down the demand?

 

1 hour ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

In the media today I see that sales of used EVs are up over 50% year on year.

The SMMT still maintain their recent figure that out of every 11 sales of EVs, only one is to a genuine private customers. The other 10 are to fleet/contract/folk seeking tax relief etc. Private customers, spending their own money, still aren't flocking to them...

15 minutes ago, StephenFord said:

The SMMT still maintain their recent figure that out of every 11 sales of EVs, only one is to a genuine private customers.

Yes, that seems to be the point. Fleet customers are going for it**, those private buyers that do want one (and they do work for some people) are snapping up a used bargain at the mo.

But unless new sales increase across the whole spectrum of buyers, the used supply will dry up.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 2/3 years, as more affordable EVs start to hit the market. The issue for a lot of folk I know is not that they're electric per se, but they're just not the sort of car (e.g. 2 tonne SUV priced at £42k+) that they would want to buy however it was powered. 

(** I was going through some old tax paperwork the other day and recalled the hit I used to get on company car BIK so I can see I might have been amongst them if still in the "club" today.😀)

 

 

Had our  first transporter loads of explorers this week, fleet buyers will be Lapping them up. Alot of electric transits going out too , mache -e slowed down a bit. Anticipate the fleet sales of transit custom electric will be good when they arrive. 

I have a difficult time thinking of a used EV as a bargain. A modern Shelby Mustang with a violently exploded engine would be a better prospect for long term investment value over any EV, even after I emptied my wallet replacing the engine. EV’s are not a value proposition, they are a social statement.

On 8/8/2024 at 11:09 PM, Scottman said:

I have a difficult time thinking of a used EV as a bargain. 

Yes, indeed. The reports I mentioned were talking in the context of a used EV being a "bargain" versus a new one, not as a long term keeper or investment.

Like it or not, it looks as if the petrol car is reaching the end of its time and it's very unlikely there will be any significant further developments, so the last of the breed may well retain value or appreciate.

EVs though, are relatively speaking still in the early stages and there are already indications that next generation models will have lower cost batteries, faster charging, greater range, less weight and lower initial purchase prices, so the current vehicles will, in effect, quickly become "old hat" and just depreciate as normal (or even faster). 

On 8/8/2024 at 5:46 PM, iantt said:

Anticipate the fleet sales of transit custom electric will be good when they arrive. 

Considering the Transits position in the market over the last 60 years I'm sure they will, and as most of us seem to agree electric vans make a lot of sense in many cases.

it's the smaller dealers I feel a bit sorry for. The two I know locally are very similar - family owned, virtually 100% retail sales, very loyal local customer base, cars like Fiesta, Focus and the odd B-, C-, or S-Max have been the backbone of their sales for years.

Customers like that will not be switching in great numbers to Mach E, Capri or Explorer so the dealers have to find a whole new customer base, or switch franchises if they can, as several I know of have already done over the last few years.

Others have just quit new car sales altogether, and concentrate on servicing and used sales. 

2 hours ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

Considering the Transits position in the market over the last 60 years I'm sure they will, and as most of us seem to agree electric vans make a lot of sense in many cases.

it's the smaller dealers I feel a bit sorry for. The two I know locally are very similar - family owned, virtually 100% retail sales, very loyal local customer base, cars like Fiesta, Focus and the odd B-, C-, or S-Max have been the backbone of their sales for years.

Customers like that will not be switching in great numbers to Mach E, Capri or Explorer so the dealers have to find a whole new customer base, or switch franchises if they can, as several I know of have already done over the last few years.

Others have just quit new car sales altogether, and concentrate on servicing and used sales. 

The days of the smaller dealer have been dwindling well before the ford EV shift. ford decided to reduce the number of dealers, and concentrate on large dealer set ups some time  ago. 

The used market for EVs in the 3-5 year old age is doing well according to an automotive publication.( Can't remember who it was and I only read it 30 mins ago. 🤣🤣)  So there's demand for them out there. 

Found it. Car dealer magazine. 

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/high-demand-for-used-electric-cars-as-fastest-and-slowest-selling-used-cars-in-july-revealed/306176

 

16 minutes ago, iantt said:

The days of the smaller dealer have been dwindling well before the ford EV shift. 

Yes, it has, sadly. I guess yours will be different 'cos you work there 😀, but I've usually found the smaller set up better on both sales and service than the big boys.

In the period between 2009 and around 2015 Ford Motor Company was in the process of narrowing its dealership population down to ostensibly correct the profitability of the remaining outlets. They argued that the remaining dealers would be more profitable because they would have more volume per outlet. 
Ford then began to repurchase a large number of stores that had been struggling with profitability.

I am unsure how or why Ford did not study what the impact of fewer stores would have on their market share. But they were persistent about their plan. 
they first discovered that they had triggered a decline on the parts and services side of the business that was not helpful in speeding the repairs of customers vehicles. Because dealers had long cooperated with their neighboring Ford dealers with selling parts to each other to quickly get vehicles repaired. They all competed against each other on the sales floor, but they cooperated with each other on the parts and services side of the business! So many dealerships became isolated and discovered that they had to drastically increase their inventory to keep their “service drive fill rates” at an acceptable number.

 Adjustment to the new “normal” was not easy. It had the effect of making every dealership have to operate more  like a large, urban dealership. Only problem was that they were not a large urban dealership!

 The other really big problem Ford didn’t anticipate was that many of the dealership owners they wrote checks to for their franchises actually owned the dealership property! They took the money from Ford and then bought Kia, Hyundai or Subaru franchises and then just went to work taking market share from the company that just paid them to go away. I honestly don’t think Ford had considered that those ambitious people would not just buy another franchise! Ford was and is just that blind. 
At least in America, I don’t know what the situation was in Europe or the UK, owning a car dealership was the single most likely path to success and becoming the most successful person in the area of your business location in the entire country. It didn’t matter what State or city or even what size town you were in. If a dealership could be supported by a given community, you would be a successful person. 
Ford has dug themselves a very deep hole.

Just looking at a comparison of the Focus ST Edition, vs the Cupra Born VZ.

Focus figures first, then Cupra in brackets/bold:

 

Price:         £42,905 (£44,635)

Power:        276 bhp (322 bhp)

Torque:       310 lb/ft (402 lb/ft)

O-62 mph:  5.7 sec (5.7 sec)

Max speed: 155 mph (125 mph)

Ecconomy: 35.3 mpg (4.2 mpkWh)

Range:       403miles (372 miles)

C02:           185g/km (0g/km)

Tax band:   37% (2%)

Given the difference in fuel costs, some food for thought there I think, particularly for company users.

 

1 hour ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

...some food for thought there I think, particularly for company users.

Many 'private' buyers could care less about the comparisons listed, even the price, £1500 on a £42,000 spend. The primary barrier is still the ethos of EVs, with a poor infrastructure, having to spend hours refueling instead of a few minutes, the realisation that EVs aren't entirely the 'green' utopia they're often made out to be. The huge weight of a comparable EV continuously tearing up our already fragile roads & throwing out excessive particulates from tire/brake wear. The fact that potentially 30% of owners have no 'home' charging solution'. Higher insurance costs etc etc.

As I look back, it's almost analogous to where government mandated the use of masks during Covid where there was no actual evidence whatsoever they did any good (as now being exposed in the current public inquiry into government handling). Indeed the mass sacking of healthcare professionals who refused to take the vaccine on a whim with again, no evidence whatsoever it made any difference.

When the inquiry into EVs start in years to come, we'll all realise how duped we were, and how government, when they say, 'lessons will be learned', always mean, 'lessons will never be learned'...

21 minutes ago, StephenFord said:

Many 'private' buyers could care less about the comparisons listed, even the price, £1500 on a £42,000 spend.

Indeed. I'm not arguing for or against either way, and as you know I remain sceptical of the "one size fits all" kind of approach being taken. If I was say, 25 years younger today, and still in the fortunate position of belonging to the company car fraternity, I would be looking at that sort of comparison very seriously.

An EV does work for some people, like Ian on here for example, which is fine. It should be a choice, though, not a compulsory thing.

What I feel is more concerning for the ordinary private motorist at present, is that the "£40k or thereabouts" figure seems to be becoming the norm for a family vehicle irrespective of power source.

You couldn't now buy any new (petrol) Focus for under £28,500 (for a 125ps 1.0) so you could see why some people might be interested in a more powerful and quicker MG 4 from £26,995 particularly if they can charge at home and/or have plentiful public chargers locally.

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

An EV does work for some people, like Ian on here for example, which is fine. It should be a choice, though, not a compulsory thing.

That was the whole premise that I started this thread with. I have nothing 'against' EVs, just detest government making it compulsory that it will be the only choice that the general public will have. (Of course emergency services such as Police, Fire, Military etc are exempt)

37 minutes ago, StephenFord said:

That was the whole premise that I started this thread with.

You did indeed. Hard to believe it was nearly 4 years ago - this must be one of the longest running "active" threads now. If only we could get Ed Miliband to have a read!😀

On 8/15/2024 at 2:16 PM, StephenFord said:

The huge weight of a comparable EV continuously tearing up our already fragile roads & throwing out excessive particulates from tire/brake wear.

I have to take issue with that. I think the road wear from small private vehiches, and even light commercials, is relatively insignificant in comparison to 44-tonne HGVs even allowing that there are so many more of them. You've only got to see how quickly a newly surfaced road develops tramlines spaced at the track of an HGV. I think there's some formula for the wear relating to weight but I can'r remember what it is. Probably a square law or something.

Brake wear particulates shoud be a lot less on an EV with regenerative braking.

I understand your arguments regarding the political push to remove choice and there are undeniably many other mitigating measures that could be put in place to reduce overall emissions but your statement quoted above smacks a bit of clutching at straws.

Brake wear is virtually non existent. As for tyre wear figures from lease company's who monitor vehicle costs, there's no difference in wear except for performance models and that's the end user being dicks. In my case I'm still on original tyres as you can see from the tyre manufacture date and car now on nearly 33k. Tyres on 4mm X2 and 3mm X2. 

Car have been getting heavier for donkeys years, not just EVs, and with the battery tech now, they are getting smaller and lighter. 

Charging inferstructure is improving vastly. Charging times getting lower. Obviously in my case I can charge at home and exclusively do bar one occasion when my partner used my car to visit her mother over a few days trips out covering 400+ miles. She easily found a charger, plugged in, went to Starbucks next door and by the time she drank her coffee, she had got plenty of charge to get home. 

I've done 16k trouble free miles in just under 12 months. Total cost £331

As for insurance costs, various EVs have been compared to ice equivilant and shown to around the same with a few exceptions. In my case both the ioniq and now Kona was the same price as my Mondeo.