Coronavirus-A More Serious Thread

[Eric Bloodaxe]

8 minutes ago, erictcleric said:

Rant over 🙂

That seemed a pretty reasonable statement to me, rather than a rant!😃 

[Eric Bloodaxe]

11 hours ago, erictcleric said:

Following the science should mean that you are constantly re-examining the evidence, and are prepared to change your views as new evidence comes to light. Unfortunately, the media, politicians and public opinion typically interpret science as a) an irrevocable fact; b) an opportunity to knock a smug know-it-all when new evidence comes to light that changes the original theory, and c) something they should now reject in favour of their own personal beliefs, because all the experts change their mind when new evidence appears.

Science is all about finding answers, but that's never a quick process.

Just to amplify earlier points, digesting this mornings news over breakfast, once again several divergent views reported. "A leading expert" (always suspicious of him/her!) said the virus was here for ever, Chris Whitty the CMO said the chances of a highly effective vaccine before Xmas are very low, while the Deputy CMO Professor Van Tam was optimistic that we would have something available by then, that could be targeted first at the highest risk groups. Targeting the highest risk 20% could eliminate up to 90% of deaths.

I'm sure all these divergent opinions are logically formed, but it does illustrate the difficulty faced by government in formulating policy.

[TomsFocus]

11 hours ago, erictcleric said:

Flu apparently has an R of 7. 

Where did you read that?  That'd be up there with German measles!  Winter flu is generally 1-2 from what I've seen...  

[Eric Bloodaxe]

On 7/19/2020 at 10:28 AM, TomsFocus said:

If so, are the majority of people wearing masks now?  (I know it's not mandatory until Friday)

Update - popped into my local Co-op this morning, still not a mask in sight. I did notice that they'd slightly changed the routing round the store, so asked the lady on checkout if that was because of the change of policy on Friday? "Why, what's happening on Friday?" she replied!😃

[erictcleric]

48 minutes ago, TomsFocus said:

Where did you read that?  That'd be up there with German measles!  Winter flu is generally 1-2 from what I've seen...  

Some dodgy government slide many moons ago. I'm not sure how they arrived at an R value of 7 for flu which seems very high. However, it is a statistic, and a government statistic at that, so I think it just proves that 83% of all statistics are made up.

I've found myself paying less attention to all the coronavirus news recently. Experts will have specific views depending on their specialisation and there will be different ways of interpreting data. Then you can throw public opinion into that, media ratings, plus the need for government to be seen to be "doing something" and you get too much conflicting information.

My plan is be sensible - limit going out, keep up with hand washing, etc. - and just have a cup of tea until this whole thing blows over.

[TomsFocus]

1 hour ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

Update - popped into my local Co-op this morning, still not a mask in sight. I did notice that they'd slightly changed the routing round the store, so asked the lady on checkout if that was because of the change of policy on Friday? "Why, what's happening on Friday?" she replied!😃

That's reassuring!  

Oddly, Tesco had removed the one way system and adhesive floor arrows on Monday.  Which was a little annoying as I'd specifically written my list in order not to double back anywhere lol.  They now just have lots of 'keep 2m apart' signs about.  

I've also wondered if the delivery/C&C pickers will have to wear masks, seeing as they're on the shop floor around customers all day.

After my initial panic and usual 'can't do it' whine, I'll probably give the mask another go at home over the weekend.  There's no way I can make up a £40 minimum spend for an online shop next week!

[Eric Bloodaxe]

32 minutes ago, TomsFocus said:

I've also wondered if the delivery/C&C pickers will have to wear masks, seeing as they're on the shop floor around customers all day.

As far as I can ascertain, it's not compulsory for staff, though employers obviously do provide PPE such as plastic gloves, face masks and visors, and many staff, but by no means all (and certainly not the ones in my local Co-op store!) do use it.

If anything, I would have thought it more important for the staff to use a proper face covering than customers - after all, they're in there for a full shift, not just zooming in and out as quickly as possible like I do. Funny old world.......
 

[Turvey]

https://www.ladbible.com/news/uk-doctor-runs-22-miles-in-face-mask-to-prove-it-doesnt-affect-oxygen-20200722?c=1595433010658%3Fsource%3Dfacebook&fbclid=IwAR0vYycwuUivWmZ6qMVzuTE-lw8y347XRvHkslaFrZIGi5l7JFfBOFuJz5g

[Stoney871]

The mandatory mask rule isn't so much about reducing viral spread but more about tempting nervous customers back into shops (you know the type- ones that wear a mask & gloves to answer their own landline phones).
The only reason that distancing has been reduced and shops allowed to reopen is purely due to thr pressure that retailers have heaped on the government concerning lost jobs and shop closures.

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[Eric Bloodaxe]

51 minutes ago, Stoney871 said:

The mandatory mask rule isn't so much about reducing viral spread but more about tempting nervous customers back into shops (you know the type- ones that wear a mask & gloves to answer their own landline phones).

Yes, that's what I'd been led to believe, but I've seen a slight shift in position from some politicians and advisers more towards preventing a possible second wave in autumn/winter.

On the shopping thing - I don't know if my friends, relations and neighbours are braver than the norm but I've not heard one express the slightest nervousness about visiting shops. What has put them off is distancing measures, queuing outside for "one out, one in" situations, one-way systems in stores etc. In the case of non food stores, my Mrs and her friends are just not interested if they can't have the normal experience (and I can assure you, if we had a UK Olympic Shopping Team, that lot would be in it! 😃)

In fact a lot of them have already gone nearly 100% internet now, so they certainly won't be lured back into shops while face covering is in force. 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Bloodaxe]

Just briefly going back to the statistics theme, spotted this attributed to the Office of National Statistics:

Most recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also show the number of fatalities has fallen in all regions of England and Wales as the virus continues to peter out in the UK.

And deaths of any cause are now the lowest they have been all year, with promising statistics showing the number of fatalities has been below average for the past four weeks in a row. 

ONS experts explained that Covid-19 likely sped up the deaths of people who would have died of other causes, meaning the year's fatalities have been front-loaded. As a result, fewer people are now dying of causes such as heart disease and dementia because they have already succumbed to the coronavirus.

 

 

 

[TomsFocus]

4 minutes ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

Just briefly going back to the statistics theme, spotted this attributed to the Office of National Statistics:

Most recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also show the number of fatalities has fallen in all regions of England and Wales as the virus continues to peter out in the UK.

And deaths of any cause are now the lowest they have been all year, with promising statistics showing the number of fatalities has been below average for the past four weeks in a row. 

ONS experts explained that Covid-19 likely sped up the deaths of people who would have died of other causes, meaning the year's fatalities have been front-loaded. As a result, fewer people are now dying of causes such as heart disease and dementia because they have already succumbed to the coronavirus.

I was trying to explain this to a relative a few weeks ago...  A lot of the people that died probably only had months left and would've died in the winter anyway.  But I also wonder how many deaths from other causes were prevented, there must have been fewer RTCs and work related accidents for example.  But then, has lockdown caused more suicides?  More DIY related accidents?  It will definitely be interesting to see how the whole years statistics compare to other years!

[Eric Bloodaxe]

24 minutes ago, TomsFocus said:

I was trying to explain this to a relative a few weeks ago...  A lot of the people that died probably only had months left and would've died in the winter anyway.

Well, "it ain't over till the fat lady sings" as the old saying goes, so we'll no doubt have lots of debating about what really happened if/when someone officially decides it's "over" however they define it. I can envisage something like the post game analysis on "Match of the Day", going on for years!

But yes, we're all going to go from something at some time, so if it isn't one thing it's another. You might even be right about DIY. I remember years ago on one of the (many) health/safety/risk assessment courses I've attended, as an "icebreaker" they had us trying to guess the most dangerous of a long list of different environments. The answer was "the home"!😃

 

[Tizer]

38 minutes ago, Eric Bloodaxe said:

But yes, we're all going to go from something at some time, so if it isn't one thing it's another. You might even be right about DIY. I remember years ago on one of the (many) health/safety/risk assessment courses I've attended, as an "icebreaker" they had us trying to guess the most dangerous of a long list of different environments. The answer was "the home"!😃

I can believe that, I remember being at A&E one Sunday and I overheard the staff saying here comes the  Black and Decker brigade as people came in with blood dripping from their limbs.

[RAIDER32]

1 hour ago, TomsFocus said:

I was trying to explain this to a relative a few weeks ago...  A lot of the people that died probably only had months left and would've died in the winter anyway.  But I also wonder how many deaths from other causes were prevented, there must have been fewer RTCs and work related accidents for example.  But then, has lockdown caused more suicides?  More DIY related accidents?  It will definitely be interesting to see how the whole years statistics compare to other years!

If you listed to the wording on the News it's "with Corona Virus", not "100% because of Corona Virus" it does make you wonder the true figure of 'Virus only Deaths',
I've heard reports both here and abroad that people injured and die and later are tested for the virus, they literally might have been fine with it or caught it in hospital,
But the record will show "with Corona Virus" and be on the list, never mind they were in a car crash and died days later.

I saw something about a children's unit at one Hospital a while back, they were almost empty and had not much to do,
that kinda doesn't fit the narrative of an overwhelmed NHS and I never really saw many stories like that again.
I imagine a lot of other departments were also quiet with procedures cancelled, all the News was focused on virus chaos at the other end.
So on one hand you have less physical injury admissions, but likely an increase in complications from lack of planned surgery or treatment.

[RAIDER32]

22 hours ago, TomsFocus said:

Oddly, Tesco had removed the one way system and adhesive floor arrows on Monday.  Which was a little annoying as I'd specifically written my list in order not to double back anywhere lol.  They now just have lots of 'keep 2m apart' signs about.  

I've also wondered if the delivery/C&C pickers will have to wear masks, seeing as they're on the shop floor around customers all day.

After my initial panic and usual 'can't do it' whine, I'll probably give the mask another go at home over the weekend.  There's no way I can make up a £40 minimum spend for an online shop next week!

I shop at Tesco too, I've been going first thing to avoid the crowds, but even with a quiet store half the people couldn't follow the arrows 🙄

With the new shop rules and being back to work next week, I caved in to the idea of a mask and thought I might as well do it right and bought a couple of Ford ones 😀

https://fordlifestylecollection.com/en/ford-community-masks

[Eric Bloodaxe]

31 minutes ago, RAIDER32 said:

If you listed to the wording on the News it's "with Corona Virus", not "100% because of Corona Virus" it does make you wonder the true figure of 'Virus only Deaths',

We're still awaiting the outcome of the review into counting method ordered by Matt Hancock, as mentioned earlier in the thread.

I saw one report which suggested the methodology being adopted by Public Health England was to comb the database for anyone who had ever tested positive, and then see how many were still alive. The ones who weren't were put down as "coronavirus" deaths. 

Hard to know what to believe. You can make statistics prove almost anything really - it's the way you tell 'em!

 

[TomsFocus]

1 hour ago, RAIDER32 said:

I shop at Tesco too, I've been going first thing to avoid the crowds, but even with a quiet store half the people couldn't follow the arrows 🙄

With the new shop rules and being back to work next week, I caved in to the idea of a mask and thought I might as well do it right and bought a couple of Ford ones 😀

https://fordlifestylecollection.com/en/ford-community-masks

Haha, good choice!  It's a shame they don't do them with car front ends...  Mk3.5 ST front end would look cool...  

[Stoney871]

Remember- 78% of stastistics are made up.

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[erictcleric]

1 hour ago, Stoney871 said:

Remember- 78% of stastistics are made up.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 

And the remaining 26% are just due to bad data. 

[Eric Bloodaxe]

On 7/22/2020 at 11:48 AM, erictcleric said:

 However, it is a statistic, and a government statistic at that, so I think it just proves that 83% of all statistics are made up.

 

1 hour ago, Stoney871 said:

Remember- 78% of stastistics are made up.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 

Come on guys, which is it?😃

[Stoney871]

Well 60% reckon it's the first one, 75% think it's the other one and the rest think they are a small wooden frog named kevin.

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[Eric Bloodaxe]

5 hours ago, Stoney871 said:

Well 60% reckon it's the first one, 75% think it's the other one and the rest think they are a small wooden frog named kevin.

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Sounds about right!😃

[Turvey]

Could have put these in the light-hearted thread but there is a serious message being portrayed so...

[Eric Bloodaxe]

Not ridden for a while, but I know some of you guys still do. I was wondering how motorcyclists are going on with the face covering thing? Until recently filling stations asked that you took your lid off before filling up and paying, but what happens now? Can you keep your full face helmet on or do you have to take it off and put a face covering on before going in to pay?